PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY REPORT IN ANDHRA PRADESH

  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ABOUT SURVEY & METHODOLOGY :

  • A Public Opinion Survey was conducted with the aid of specially
    designed questionnaire in order to bring forth the Political Data on the following Parameters so as to understand the Political and Social Dynamics and Changing Equations in Andhra Pradesh on the eve of 2019 Assembly Elections :

1) Performance of TDP Government
2) Preferred Choice of Political Party for the Assembly
3) Preferred Choice of Political Party for the Loksabha
4) Preferred Choice of Political Parties Alliance (YSRCP+Janasena)
5) Preferred Choice of Political Parties Alliance (TDP+Janasena)
6) Preferred Choice of MLA Candidate/s
7) Preferred Choice of MP Candidate/s

  • It is a huge survey covering the sample of 4,37,642 in the state. A
    structured questionnaire was used to collect the data. Through this questionnaire, totally 4,37,642 respondents were interviewed while taking equal number of samples from all the mandals falling under each Assembly constituency in 175 Assembly constituencies.
  • Enough care was taken to include all the categories like gender, age, caste, education, occupation and income to represent the proportionate sample.
  • The gender-wise sample shows that the survey covered 53.3% males and 46.7% females. The caste-wise breakup of the sample shows that the survey covered 17.2% of SCs, 6.7% of STs, 35.7% of BCs, 31.0% of OCs and 9.1% Muslims and Minorities. But depending on the concentration of minorities in each AC, enough care was taken to represent their sample.
  •  All the occupational categories like labour (25.3%), Farmers (21.5%), Business Persons (20.9%), Artisans (4.2%), Housewives (6.7%), Govt., Employees (7.6%), Students (5.7%), unemployed (4.4%) and others (3.7%) were included in the sample for survey.
  • The income-wise categories of respondents in the sample are Poor
    (21.2%), Low Middle (35.8%), Middle (39.0%) and Rich are (4.0%).
  • The age wise data shows that 26.3% belongs to 18-25 age, 32.6% belongs to 26-35 years, 35.4% belongs to 36 – 60 years and 5.7% belongs to above 60 years.
  • The educational qualifications of the sample data shows that illiterates are 24.2%, 21.4% studied upto V class, 21.4% studied VI-X class, 13.3% studied upto intermediate, 16.5% studied upto graduation and 3.8% studied PG and above.

RESULTS OF THE SURVEY:

  •  There is anti-incumbency to the extent of 50.4% about TDP government in Andhra Pradesh and 47.1% of the voters opined that TDP government as good.
  •  In 120 ACs, voters are expressed that the performance of the
    government is bad whereas only in 55 ACs voters conveyed that present government functioning is good.
  •  With regard to the party preferences for Assembly elections-2019, people in the state, YSRCP has vote share of 47.8%, TDP has vote share of 43.3%, Janasena has 4.6%, BJP has 1.9, Congress has 1.7%, CPI has 0.3%, CPI(M) has 0.2% and others have 0.2%. Thus there is a difference of 4.5% votes between YSRCP and TDP. In other words YSRCP has 4.5% votes more than TDP in Andhra Pradesh.

vote share of all parties

  •  The Survey indicates broad trend expressively that YSRCP is likely to win 122 Assembly Seats. TDP is getting 53 seats and other parties are not opening any account including Janasena.

Poll Outcome Prediction (without Alliance ):

number of seats winning chances of all parties

The district-wise tally is as follows;

district-wise tally as follows

  •  The Survey clearly hints at the role of Janasena – a new Political Force for 2019 AP Assembly Elections. Janasena as per the Survey might not open its account in 2019 Assembly Elections. However, in the districts of Krishna, East Godavari and West Godavari, Janasena is influencing the poll outcomes of YSRCP seats because in these districts both YSRCP and TDP are getting almost equal number of seats in these districts. And hence YSRCP has to be cautious with Janasena in these three districts.
  •  However, though YSRCP is getting 122 Assembly seats, it should be kept in mind that in 19 Assembly Constituencies among these 122 have very close contest with TDP and the margin of vote percentage in these 19 ACs is below 3%. Following are these 19 Assembly seats which YSRCP have to protect and take care that TDP will not wean away these seats from YSRCP.
  • 1. Patapatnam, 2. Palakonda (ST), 3. Parvathipuram(SC), 4. Salur (ST), 5. Madugula, 6. Payakaropeta (SC), 7. Pathipadu, 8.Kothapeta,9.Jaggayyapeta,10.Tenali,11.Prathipadu(SC),12.Santhanuthalapadu(SC), 13.Kondepi, 14.Kodur (SC), 15.Allagadda, 16.Nandyal, 17.Madanapalle, 18.Tirupati and 19.Srikalahasthi.
  •  Though TDP is getting 53 Assembly seats, it shold be kept in mind that in 18 Assembly Constituencies among these 53, YSRCP has very close contest with TDP and the margin of vote percentage between TDP and YSRCP is below 3%. Following are these 18 Assembly seats which YSRCP have to work and wean them away from TDP.
    1.Palasa 2. Vizianagaram 3. Visakhapatnam East  4.Visakhapatnam West 5. Razole (SC) 6. Gannavaram (SC)  7.Mandapeta 8.Rajanagaram
    9.Rajahmundry (Rural) 10.Denduluru 11.Vijayawada (West)
    12.Vijayawada (Central) 13. Nandigama(SC) 14. Ponnur 15.Hindupur 16.Penukonda 17. Thamballapalle and 18. Chittoor
  •  In all categories like gender, Age, Caste, education and occupation, people are inclined to YSRCP giving an edge with 2-3% followed by TDP.
  •  YSRCP has to work among the Sub-castes of STs like Sugali/Lambada, Savara and Bagatha to improve its situation.
  •  YSRCP has to work among the Sub-castes of BCs like Goud/Settibalija, Turpu Kapu, Gavara, Uppara, Agnikula Kshatriya, Koppula Velama, K.Kalinga to improve its situation.
  •  YSRCP has to work among the Sub-castes of OCs like Vysya/ Komati, Balija, Kamma, Kapu, Velama to improve its situation.
  •  While analyzing the alliance preferences, voters in the states preferred the association of YSRCP + Jana Sena with 51.2% followed by TDP with 44.5%, Congress with 2.1%, BJP with 1.5% and others by 0.7%. And coming to the seats tally after the alliance of YSRCP + Jana Sena, it shows that YSRCP +Jana Sena are getting 119 Assembly seats and TDP is getting 56 Assembly Seats. Hence, YSRCP by having Alliance with is only increasing only vote share but not number of seats.

Vote Share if YSRCP + Janasena goes in alliance:

ysrcp and janasena other parties seats analysis

Seat Share if YSRCP + Janasena goes in alliance:

Type of alliance and number of seats

  •  With regard to the TDP + Jana Sena alliance, the vote share of TDP and Jana Sena together are getting 44.1% and YSRCP is getting 51.6%. In this case also, the seats tally is inclined in favour of YSRCP with 123 Seats and TDP + Jana Sena with 52 seats. Thus YSRCP will not face any problem even if TDP plus Jansena goes in alliance in the coming elections.

Vote Share of TDP + Janasena alliance:

TDP and janasena vote share

Seat Share of TDP + Janasena alliance:

Type o0f alliance nad number of seats

  •  With regard to the party preferences for Parliament elections-2019, people in the state want to vote YSRCP with 48.2% followed by 42.4% by TDP, Jana Sena with 4.7%, Congress with 1.6%, CPI with 0.4%, CPI(M) with 0.2% and others with 0.2%
  • As per this survey, YSRCP is winning 20 Parliament Seats and TDP is having 5 seats. The 5 seats which TDP is having edge over YSRCP in Parliament Elections are Kakinada, Naraspuram, Srikakulam, Vijayawada and Visakhapatnam.

SAMPLE PROFILE:

Total Sample –4,37,642

Gender and age wise percentage

caste and education percentage

occupation and income wise percentage

SURVEY FINDINGS

TDP Government Performance:
  • There is anti-incumbency to the extent of 50.4% about TDP
    government in Andhra Pradesh and 47.1% of the voters opined that TDP government as good.

good and bad about TDP party

  •  In 120 ACs, voters are expressed that the performance of the
    government is bad whereas only in 55 ACs voters conveyed that
    present government functioning is bad.
  • The AC-wise findings are annexed in the present report.
Voter Preference for Political Parties:

Vote share all parties in percentages

 Poll Outcome Prediction (without Alliance):

Name of the party and number of seats

YSRCP winning 122 Assembly Seats:

YSRCP winning 122 Assembly seats

YSRCP winning 122 Assembly seats

YSRCP WINNING 122 ASSEMBLY SEATS

YSRCP winning 122 Assembly seats

YSRCP winning 122 assembly seats

YSRCP winning 122 assembly seats

YSRCP winning 122 assembly seats

3% KEEN CONTEST SEATS – YSRCP HAVING EDGE OVER TDP

YSRCP edge over TDP

TDP winning 53 Assembly Seats:

TDP winning 53 assembly seats

TDP winning 53 assembly seats

TDP winning 53 assembly seats

3% KEEN CONTEST SEATS – TDP HAVING EDGE OVER YSRCP

TDP having edge over YSRCP

Voting Preferences for Political Parties as per Gender, Age, Caste,
Education, Occupation categories:
  •  Gender-wise:

gender wise discrimination

  • Age-wise:

age wise discrimination

  • Caste-wise:

age wise discrimination

  • Education-wise:

education wise discrimination

  • Occupation-wise:

occupation wise discrimination

  • Income-wise:

Income wise discriminationFindings:

  • YSRCP has to work among the Sub-castes of STs like Sugali/Lambada, Savara and Bagatha to improve its situation.
  •  YSRCP has to work among the Sub-castes of BCs like Goud/Settibalija, Turpu Kapu, Gavara, Uppara, Agnikula Kshatriya, Koppula Velama, K.Kalinga to improve its situation.
  •  YSRCP has to work among the Sub-castes of BCs like Vysya/ Komati, Balija, Kamma, Kapu, Velama to improve its situation.
Vote share for Alliance of YSRCP + Jana Sena for Assembly
Elections-2019:

ysrcp and janasena alliance

No. of Seats secured to Alliance of YSRCP + Jana Sena for
Assembly Elections-2019:

type of alliance and seats

Vote share for Alliance of TDP + Jana Sena for Assembly
Elections-2019:

tdp and janasena alliance

No. of Seats secured to Alliance of TDP + Jana Sena for Assembly
Elections-2019:

type of alliance and number of seats

Voting Preferences for Political Parties in Parliament Elections2019:

vote share of all parties

No. of Seats secured to Political Parties for Parliament Elections2019 without any Alliances:

  • Voting preferences for Political Parties for ensuing Parliament
    Elections-2019:

party preferences in loksabha elections

party preferences in loksabha elections

PERFORMANCE OF PRESENT TDP GOVERNMENT: 175 ACs

good and bad

TDP party performance in srikakulam district

TDP performance in vizayanagaram district

TDP performance in vishakapatnam

Tdp performance in vishakapatnam district

TDP party performance in east godavari district

TDP party performance in east godavari districttdp performance in west godavariTdp performance in krishna district

TDP performance in guntur district

TDP performance of Prakasham districtTDP performance in nellore district

TDP performance in kadapa districtTDP performance in kurnool district

Tdp performance in anantapur district

TDP performance in chittor district

TDP performance in chittor district

PARTY PREFERENCES IN 175 ASSEMBLY SEATS FOR THE ENSUING
ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS-2019

District-wise:

srikakulam voters analysis

Vizayanagaram voters analysis

Vishakapatnam voters analysis

vishakaptanam voters analysis

East godavari voters analysis

west godavari voters analysis

west godavari voters analysis

krishna district voters analysis

Guntur district voter analysis

prakasham voters analysis

nellore district voters analysiskadapa district voters analysis

kurnool district voters analysis

anantapur district voters analysis

chittor district voters analysis

chittor district voters analysis

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